Poll Reality - Why McCain Could Be Pres
October 31st 2008 21:07
I've seen two reports now that polling companies are consistently reporting that they are getting 80% refuse to answer and hang up rates. That means to get 1,000 likely voters, they are having to call 5,000 people.
I believe it's safe to assume that people voting for Barack are more likely to want to share their support of The One. It's the thing to do. So many McCain supporters are getting called racist for supporting him, plus they believe the polls, especially from the Obamania media, are slanted to discourage them.
Therefore, I believe I can say confidently that McCain supporters are the majority of the non-responders on these polling calls.
Let's be conservative though. Let's say that of those 4,000 non-responders, it's 51% for McCain and 49% for Obama, ignoring those for Nader or McKinney. Rasmussen has the candidates currently at 51% Obama, 47% McCain.
In that case, if you factor in from among those 4,000 with the 1,000 that responded and you get 50.3% of the people voting for McCain and 49.7% for Obama. That's why Obama is going back to Iowa and still working so hard in states they appear to have locked up according to the polls.
If the ratio of the non-responders is 55/45, McCain will roll over Obama.
That's factor number one.
Factor number two is Operation Chaos run by Rush Limbaugh during the primary. During this, Rush encouraged Republicans in Pennsylvania and other late voting states to switch their registration to Democrat so they could vote for Hillary and prolong the battle. The thought, correctly, was that the more they tore each other up, the better for the Republicans.
When pollsters calculate their numbers, they use the number of registered members of each party to "weight" the results. They say "Hey, Democrats are 39% of registered voters, Repubs 33%, and Dems are going 89% for Obama," then weight their results using that. But if the numbers are wrong since the Operation Chaos participants don't have to change their registrations back in order to vote for McCain, then the weighting is wrong, and the polls are even closer than what they are releasing.
The NY Times latest poll even polled 33% more Democrats than Republicans. Um, yeah, Obama will be ahead in those polls.
Factor number three is outright, intentional lying to pollsters. One group that has admitted doing this is the PUMA's for Hillary. One of their members admitted to Sean Hannity on his radio show that they were telling pollsters they are voting for Obama to make him overconfident and that they are really voting for McCain. Obama has a new very sexist ad out too, which reduces Palin to a wink.
Add in the people who are afraid of being called racist by being openly out for McCain, or those that are racist but want to hide it, and you have a good solid block of wrong poll numbers.
I predict you will see McCain take every 2004 Bush state, plus Pennsylvania. I predict Chris Matthews will be crying and Olbermann will be screaming about fraud.
Proposition 8 in California may also get such a huge Republican and Conservative turn out that McCain pulls that out as well, since Dem voters with "something better to do" may think Obama is locked and go watch Survivor on their DVR . . . It happened to Bradley, as most people now feel that it wasn't Bradley's color, it was the anti-gun ballot initiative that brought out more conservative voters that cost Bradley the election.
Don't lose hope Conservatives. Go vote. Go get your friends to vote. We can win. Just stay away from big cities if McCain/Palin are elected. They won't be safe for a while.
I believe it's safe to assume that people voting for Barack are more likely to want to share their support of The One. It's the thing to do. So many McCain supporters are getting called racist for supporting him, plus they believe the polls, especially from the Obamania media, are slanted to discourage them.
Therefore, I believe I can say confidently that McCain supporters are the majority of the non-responders on these polling calls.
Let's be conservative though. Let's say that of those 4,000 non-responders, it's 51% for McCain and 49% for Obama, ignoring those for Nader or McKinney. Rasmussen has the candidates currently at 51% Obama, 47% McCain.
In that case, if you factor in from among those 4,000 with the 1,000 that responded and you get 50.3% of the people voting for McCain and 49.7% for Obama. That's why Obama is going back to Iowa and still working so hard in states they appear to have locked up according to the polls.
If the ratio of the non-responders is 55/45, McCain will roll over Obama.
That's factor number one.
Factor number two is Operation Chaos run by Rush Limbaugh during the primary. During this, Rush encouraged Republicans in Pennsylvania and other late voting states to switch their registration to Democrat so they could vote for Hillary and prolong the battle. The thought, correctly, was that the more they tore each other up, the better for the Republicans.
When pollsters calculate their numbers, they use the number of registered members of each party to "weight" the results. They say "Hey, Democrats are 39% of registered voters, Repubs 33%, and Dems are going 89% for Obama," then weight their results using that. But if the numbers are wrong since the Operation Chaos participants don't have to change their registrations back in order to vote for McCain, then the weighting is wrong, and the polls are even closer than what they are releasing.
The NY Times latest poll even polled 33% more Democrats than Republicans. Um, yeah, Obama will be ahead in those polls.
Factor number three is outright, intentional lying to pollsters. One group that has admitted doing this is the PUMA's for Hillary. One of their members admitted to Sean Hannity on his radio show that they were telling pollsters they are voting for Obama to make him overconfident and that they are really voting for McCain. Obama has a new very sexist ad out too, which reduces Palin to a wink.
Add in the people who are afraid of being called racist by being openly out for McCain, or those that are racist but want to hide it, and you have a good solid block of wrong poll numbers.
I predict you will see McCain take every 2004 Bush state, plus Pennsylvania. I predict Chris Matthews will be crying and Olbermann will be screaming about fraud.
Proposition 8 in California may also get such a huge Republican and Conservative turn out that McCain pulls that out as well, since Dem voters with "something better to do" may think Obama is locked and go watch Survivor on their DVR . . . It happened to Bradley, as most people now feel that it wasn't Bradley's color, it was the anti-gun ballot initiative that brought out more conservative voters that cost Bradley the election.
Don't lose hope Conservatives. Go vote. Go get your friends to vote. We can win. Just stay away from big cities if McCain/Palin are elected. They won't be safe for a while.
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Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
There are two ways it can go, as I see it. If McCain wins, Obama screams racism and we get a race war. If Obama wins we'll wish we had a race war rather than what he'll deliver.
Comment by Lester Caudill
Round Politics
You are right big cities will not be safe if Obama loses. I hope governors see this coming and call out the National Guard, and have them on stand by in case he loses.
Comment by Ahmed
Video Gamer Kids
Little Green Foosballs
PolyKicks
Which is quite normal, people don't want to waste their time answering surveys.
Grow a spine, jump ship like Palin has
btw I've seen seventeen reports about how Obama is running a money counterfeiting business to give himself donations.
Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
Comment by Jonathan Biviano
Politics Realm
Marriage Bits
The FEC is on the trail of this and there will be a scandal, you can bet on it.